Oil prices are predicted to fall sharply as OPEC+ increases production amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. As of 05:00 GMT on May 4, 2026, Brent crude was essentially flat at $108.11. The global daily oil production has faced significant reductions due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure.
Prior to this announcement, Brent crude prices had surged nearly 50 percent since the start of the war. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has drastically limited maritime traffic, with only 20 vessels crossing recently compared to an average of 129 before the conflict began.
OPEC+ has now agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day starting in June 2026. This decision aims to alleviate some pressure on the global oil market and stabilize prices affected by ongoing geopolitical issues.
Experts predict that this increase in supply will lead to a decline in crude oil prices. Scott Besant stated, “Crude oil prices should fall after the recent war situation.” He emphasized that improved conditions could help restore balance in the market.
However, uncertainties remain. The effectiveness of OPEC+’s production increase in stabilizing prices is still unclear. Additionally, Iran’s threats against shipping in the Gulf continue to pose risks for energy disruption.
June Goh noted that “global observable oil inventories are starting to fall sharply,” suggesting that market sentiment may be impacted more by inventory levels than political statements regarding the Strait’s reopening.
The situation continues to evolve, with potential implications for global oil supply and pricing dynamics. Any American interference in the strait would be considered a breach of their truce, according to Ebrahim Azizi.
The next few weeks will be critical as OPEC+ implements its production increase and monitors developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
